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The benchmark KSE 100-share index plunged by about 1,700 points or 20 per cent
during the last week eroding over Rs400 billion from the market capital as
foreign investors continued to unloading their long positions after the removal
of floor.
Over the last week, the index breached through the eighth consecutive barrier
from the 15,000 points plus to below 8,000 at 7,514.42, since the current
recession started leading to unprecedented price erosions in between.
It fell by 19.69 per cent or 1,671.72 points and lost Rs413.4 billion in market
capital at Rs2,327.7bn.
‘It was a massive exit of the foreign investors trapped during the last more
than three months,’ analysts said ‘the route chosen by them was off-the-market
transactions leading to a galore of lower locks on the blue chips counter,
notably the leading banks and oil sectors.
Apart from outstanding CFS positions totaling about Rs11 billion, investors were
awaiting Sindh High Court ruling on the issue, the other destabilizing factor
was a negative outlook for the leading banks by the Moody’s followed by fresh
liquidations by the leading investors.
Floor brokers said investor at large seemed to have lost in the share business
at least for the near-term after having eroded about $44 billion from the market
capital from $75 to $31 billion since the current downward drift started on the
share market and most of them may not have fresh appetite even for the blue
chips available at a terribly cheaper rates.
The question being debated in the stock market circles whether or not the market
will recover from the current lower levels or the market support fund of Rs20
billion could pull it out from the current impasse. The near-term answer is
negative as both market trend setters and institutional traders are not inclined
to take even a calculated risk until some positive developments emerge on the
economic and financial front.
The law and order situation and news coming from the Fata areas in the backdrop
of US drone attacks followed by large casualties is also said to be the most
disturbing factor.
‘The major issue of CFS MK-II holdings of Rs11 billion is still unresolved,’
analyst Hasnain Asghar Ali said. ‘The future market direction will be guided by
the court verdict on it’.
The talk of out of the-court-settlement on leveraged positions on the pattern of
the removal of floor may not be relevant at this stage as the issue involves
stakeholders on both sides of the divide, he said, adding a loud whispering
about a consensus about rolling over of CFS positions to six months could be an
acceptable formula for stakeholders.
‘The Rs11 billion at stake is a big amount,’ analyst Ahsan Mahanti observes and
it may not be that easy to resolve it outside the court. The exponents could not
resolve it during the last four months and how would they do so in couple of
days.Bulk of the selling originate from leading foreign funds was confined to
most of the blue chips including notable Unilever Pakistan, PSO, Pakistan
Petroleum, MCB Bank, National Bank and Habib Bank, but prices mostly without
finding any willing buyers even at the decline, they said.
The market could suffer fresh pruning next week, but the talk that the index
could fall by another 25 per cent appears to be a bit speculative as some of the
bulls are planning a ‘big kill’ at the current lows, they added.
But some others said the market could stabilise in the next week as the pent-up
selling may have run its course paving the way for return of the bulls.
Minus signs dominated the list under the lead of blue chips in the banking and
oil sector falling like house of cards without finding willing buyers even at
the dips.
National Bank, Faysal Bank, MCB Bank, Adamjee Insurance, Attock, National
Refinery, OGDC, Pakistan Oilfields, Pakistan Petroleum, Millat Tractors, Engro
Chemical, ICI Pakistan, Packages and Unilever Pakistan were among the prominent
losers.
FORWARD COUNTER: After lacklustre trading on this counter for the last four
months stray activity was witnessed after the removal of the floor from under
the KSE 100-share index.But all the shares fell in unison under the lead of blue
chips, such as MCB Bank, Pakistan Oilfield, Pakistan Petroleum, PSO, National
Refinery and many others finishing with massive losses.
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